Trench Warfare, Microwave Weapons, and Overestimation of AI
The US and European armies thought that old types of warfare were becoming obsolete in the age of drones. But the trench warefare in Ukraine has made the underproduction of basic supplies like gunpowder visible.
The US Army has taken possession of new high-powered microwave weapons that will be able to use electromagnetic interference to disable the electronics of drones and missiles.
But first, Bloomberg columnist Hal Brands discusses if AI will revolutionise warfare or if we are overestimating its possible effects:
The Big Story
The US and Europe Underestimated Trench Warfare in the Age of Drones
The war in Ukraine has been talked about as the first drone war. At the beginning of the war, American defence startups sent their drones to Ukraine, believing it would be their chance to get battle-tested.
Meanwhile, Russia kept relying on tanks and artillery and was able to defeat many newer battlefield technologies by hacking into those systems. I have also written about Russia’s use of Morse code.
And so, Ukraine has met fire with fire. In this case, tanks with tanks. After 2 years and 4 months, the war has turned into trench warfare.
Andrii Sharin, sergeant and a medic in Ukraine’s Armed Forces describes the situation to Bloomberg:
“It looks pretty much like World War One. Everything is covered with trenches, for sure people are exhausted. It's not even tired. A lot of them are on their edge.”
Ukraine needs armed vehicles and fuel, but also weapons, including some basic ones, like 155-millimetre artillery shells, which look like giant bullets. They also need black powder, and gunpowder to fire those shells. As Sergeant Sharin says:
“Ukraine’s been running short, deadly short on these.”
Front line trenches in Ukraine. Source: New York Times.
But how did this happen? Simply put, the Pentagon and the European states failed to imagine that modern wars would look like this, and as a result, there is not enough stock of old battlefield technology in the US or Europe. Bloomberg’s reporter David Gura says:
“ […] all of this was largely seen as obsolete in an age of drones and high tech warfare, nobody thought there would be a need for such old-school artillery and munitions.”
For years, the Defence Department invested in new weapons systems, betting future conflicts wouldn’t play out the way this one has. Now, the US is committing billions of dollars to make more shells and black powder. Munitions factories in Pennsylvania, Louisiana, and Texas are being refurbished and refashioned.
Europe is dealing with the same kind of problems. After the peace dividend — the long period of investing in the economy instead of the military, there simply isn’t enough of anything. Europe is now trying to ramp up its production of 155 millimetres and other types of projectiles. But, as Bloomberg’s Roxana Tiron says:
“They’re finding that they did not invest in defence infrastructure and they're finding that building up is really difficult and it takes time.”
An employee readies projectiles for the finish turn at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant. Photographer: Rachel Wisniewski/Bloomberg
The Army’s Latest High-Tech Weapon: Microwaves
The US Army has taken possession of a platoon of four Leonidas - a high-powered microwave weapon - from Epirus. Several of these systems are planned to undergo testing in the Middle East.
A high-powered microwave is a type of directed-energy weapon. It generates a cone of electromagnetic interference to disable the electronics of drones and missiles. Where laser weapons generate a narrowly focused beam of energy to burn targets out of the sky, these weapons can deliver effects across a wider area and are more effective at engaging multiple fast-moving drones at the same time
“At the moment, there aren’t any really good options for defeating large swarms of 100 or more drones that are simultaneously attacking a target,” Epirus CEO Andy Lowery tells Fast Company.
”Today, we not only have a good system for short-range air defence against those types of threats, we believe we are the only effective program solution to counter large swarms.”
Lowery believes that microwave weapons can make a drone arms race avoidable:
“[The system] has an infinitely deep magazine, we don’t run out of bullets; you keep sending ‘em, we’ll keep shooting ‘em down.”
The push for high-powered microwave weapons is also motivated by growing concerns over warship vulnerabilities to anti-ship ballistic missiles like those fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen at Navy surface combatants and commercial vessels in the Red Sea in recent months.
Source: Epirus
In the News
Retired UN Head Implores Dimwit Leaders Not to Give AI Control of Nuclear Weapons
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has urged world leaders to prevent artificial intelligence from controlling nuclear weapons, warning of the catastrophic risks associated with such a move. Guterres highlighted the dangers of allowing AI to make autonomous decisions in military contexts, particularly regarding nuclear arsenals, where errors or unintended actions could lead to global disaster. He called for stringent regulations and international cooperation to ensure that AI remains under human supervision, emphasizing the critical need to manage AI development responsibly to safeguard global security.
Read more at Vice.
NATO to Expand Defense Tech, Intelligence Sharing with Ukraine
NATO plans to bolster its defence cooperation with Ukraine by expanding technology and intelligence sharing, particularly focusing on countering Russia’s electronic warfare tactics. The initiative includes lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s military operations and introducing new frameworks for information sharing. By enhancing technological collaborations, NATO aims to leverage Ukraine’s rapid wartime tech innovations, establishing Ukraine as a significant tech provider post-conflict. The efforts also address countermeasures against Russian GPS jamming impacting NATO members, with Ukrainian startups developing non-GPS reliant drones.
Read more at Bloomberg.
Can US and China Overcome Mutual Mistrust to Agree Rules on Military Use of Artificial Intelligence?
Amid escalating tensions, the US and China face significant challenges in establishing mutual trust to agree on regulations governing the military use of artificial intelligence. Both nations recognize the strategic importance of AI in modern warfare, yet concerns over espionage, technological dominance, and ethical implications complicate negotiations. The article highlights the urgency of creating international frameworks to manage AI’s military applications, aiming to prevent an arms race and ensure global security. Collaborative efforts are essential to mitigate risks associated with autonomous weapons and AI-driven military strategies.
Read more at Southern China Morning Post.
Hypersonic Weapons: Why is Russia Accusing Its Own Scientists of Treason?
Russia has intensified its crackdown on scientists working on hypersonic weapons, with several physicists being charged with treason. Many of the accused, often elderly, have faced harsh treatments, including imprisonment and death in custody. Critics argue that these scientists were conducting fundamental research rather than developing weapons. The crackdown appears driven by the FSB’s desire to showcase vigilance against espionage. This trend has created a climate of fear among researchers, potentially stifling innovation and international collaboration in the field of hypersonic technology.
Read more at BBC.
Autonomous Weapons: Palantir, Airbus Engineers Seek to Calm ‘Killer Robot’ Fears
Engineers from Palantir and Airbus are addressing public concerns about autonomous weapons, commonly referred to as “killer robots.” These professionals are advocating for strict ethical guidelines and transparent regulations to ensure that AI-driven military systems remain under human control. They emphasize the potential benefits of autonomous technologies in enhancing defense capabilities while mitigating risks. By fostering public dialogue and regulatory frameworks, they aim to alleviate fears and responsibly integrate AI into military applications.
Read more at Defence News.
