America Is Not Ready, North Korea’s Suicide Drones, and Telegram’s Digital Battlefield

In an essay in Foreign Affairs, Mark Milley and Eric Schmidt write that America is not ready for the future of wars.

North Korea has revealed suicide drones and is increasing its focus on using technology and artificial intelligence to carry out strikes.

But first, Telegram founder Pavel Duro was arrested in France after investigations into criminal activity on the app. Telegram has become a tool for frontline soldiers, independent journalists, and the Ukrainian government since the start of the war. France 24 spoke to Dr Melanie Garson on Telegram’s role in communication in conflict zones, who commented:

The Big Story

Mark Milley and Eric Schmidt Think America Is Not Ready

General Mark Milley, the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, published an essay titled “America Isn’t Ready for the Wars of the Future — And They’re Already Here” in the Foreign Affairs September/October issue.

In the essay, they describe what they see as a historical change in the character of warfare. The last one was in the 1930s, with the introduction of aeroplanes, radio, and mechanisation. Today, the change is the introduction of drones, robots that fly, and drones on the ground and sea driven by AI. Milley and Schmidt write that what we see now in Ukraine, Gaza, Myanmar, Sudan, and elsewhere are snippets of the future of warfare.

“It is an illusion to think that technology will change the underlying human nature of conflict. But the character of war is changing both rapidly and fundamentally,” they write.

But the US is unprepared for this future: "Its troops are not fully ready to fight in an environment in which they rarely enjoy the element of surprise,” Milley and Schmidt write.

The Russian military is building up its AI-powered drones; China has already created an AI commander; Chinese hypersonic missiles could sink US aircraft before they make it out of Pearl Harbour, and the costly F-35, heavily armoured Abrams and Bradley tanks might struggle against swarms of cheap drones.

So far, automation has focused on naval power and airports in the form of sea and air drones, but there are signs that it will soon turn to land warfare:
“The first phase of any war will likely be led by ground robots capable of everything from reconnaissance to direct attacks”, Miley and Schmidt write, continuing with that even when humans intervene, they will be led by FPV drones that can help to identify the enemy, as is already happening in Ukraine.

Milley and Schmidt predict that automation of war could be essential to saving civilian lives. However, they point out that since conflict moves into urban areas, combined with AI and the cheaper price to acquire the new tools, it is difficult to defend.

“In the worst-case scenario, AI warfare could even endanger humanity. War games conducted with AI models from OpenAI, Meta, and Anthropic have found that AI models tend to suddenly escalate to kinetic war, including nuclear war, compared with games conducted by humans,” Milley and Schmidt write.

“Future wars will no longer be about who can mass the most people or field the best jets, ships, and tanks. Instead, they will be dominated by increasingly autonomous weapons systems and powerful algorithms,” they conclude.

North Korea’s Suicide Drones

North Korea has revealed new suicide attack drones, and Kim Jong Un is calling for an increase in the use of technology to carry out strikes and incorporating artificial intelligence into the weapons program.

Photos from North Korea’s state media showed a drone being launched into the air, flying into the top of a tank that was then under blaze.

“Kim Jong Un said that it is necessary to develop and produce more suicide drones of various types to be used in tactical infantry and special operation units,” the official Korean Central News Agency reported this week.

Photos released by North Korea’s state media showed a drone being launched into the air, flying into the top of a tank, which is then seen ablaze.

In 2022, Pyongyang sent five UAVs across the border, with one flowing close to the President’s office in Seoul. South Korea’s military tried and failed to shoot the devices down. One complicating factor was a reluctance to fire munitions in heavily populated areas.

South Korea has unveiled a plan to spend about 560 billion won ($423 million) on drones over the next five years. Last month, the Yoon administration said it’s looking to develop and deploy laser weapons to destroy North Korea’s drones.

In the News

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Read more at Defense One.

Not Only for Killing: Drones Are Now Detecting Land Mines in Ukraine

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Read more at The New York Times.

Google DeepMind Staff Push to End Military Contracts

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Read more at Time.

Mike Gallagher Talks Priorities as Palantir’s New Defense Business Chief

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Read more at Defense One.

Special Operations Forces Turn to Tech to Help Commands Reduce Civilian Harm

The U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) are increasingly turning to advanced technologies to mitigate civilian harm during military operations. Christopher Maier, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict, emphasized the need for sophisticated data analytics and AI tools to enhance situational awareness and precision in targeting. The SOF is focusing on embedding these capabilities in future conflict scenarios, where traditional methods of civilian harm mitigation may not suffice. The initiative also includes the deployment of Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Officers (CHMROs) across commands to integrate these technologies effectively.
Read more at Defense Scoop.

Trump Anxiety Spurs Investment in European Defence Startups

Concerns over Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House have spurred significant investment in European defence startups. The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s stance on NATO and his previous threats to withdraw U.S. support for European allies has led to increased defence spending across Europe, with governments and venture capitalists backing new technologies like drones, robotics, and quantum computing. This surge in investment is seen as a hedge against the possibility of a less reliable U.S. security commitment, driving innovation and strengthening Europe’s defence capabilities.
Read more at Reuters.