AI Shouldn’t Launch Nukes, NewSpace Missle Development, and AR Headsets for Soldiers

The Pentagon and the intelligence agencies should harness AI technologies without letting AI decide when a nuclear bomb should be dropped.

NewSpace missile development is increasing, especially in regions without international agreements.

But first, Palmer Luckey, the founder of Anduril, is busy with a new headset project for the US Department of Defence. He believes that the use-case for defence has entirely different trade-offs than in consumer technology, where headsets are competing with the ease of the smartphone:

The Big Story

AI Should Not Be Allowed to Launch Nuclear Weapons

Last Thursday, the Biden administration released a national security memorandum detailing how the Pentagon and intelligence agencies should use and protect artificial intelligence technology.

The document addresses the challenge of speeding up the use of AI tools for government operations - from detecting cyberattacks to predicting extreme weather - while limiting the most dystopian possibilities, including developing autonomous weapons.

Jake Sullivan, the national security advisor, announced the directive at the National War College, saying that:
“We have to get this right because there is probably no other technology that will be more critical to our national security and the years ahead.”

The new memorandum contains about 50 unclassified pages and a classified appendix. One of the conclusions is that AI systems should never decide when to launch nuclear weapons; that decision should be left to the president as commander in chief.

The rules for non-nuclear weapons are less clear. They urge keeping human decision-makers informed about targeting decisions or overseeing AI tolls that may be targeting weapons, but without slowing the effectiveness of the weapons.

“Obviously, no one is going to give nuclear codes to Chat GPT. But there is a remaining question about how much information the president is getting is processed and filtered through AI systems — and whether that is bad,” said Herb Lin, a Stanford University scholar focusing on the intersection of AI and nuclear decision-making.

*Source: Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times*

The memorandum also urges intelligence agencies to help American firms protect AI technology from foreign spies and to continue making advances in semiconductor chip production. Essentially, it is a shift toward seeing privately developed AI as national assets that must be protected.

The statement is part of an effort to invite China into deeper talk about the limits that need to be placed on high-risk applications of AI. The initial conversation held in Europe last spring made no real progress.

Missle Development Is Increasing

In the past 20 years, the growth of the NewSpace sector (privately held space companies) has resulted in the creation of many NewSpace companies working on missile-related technologies.

This week, Sipri released a pilot study on the spread of this type of NewSpace companies that are developing, testing, producing or marketing missile-related technology.

The pilot study found that of the 49 countries mapped, 55% have NewSpace companies related to missile technology. The established supplier states are partners of the Missle Technology Control Regime and operate under common guidelines for exports of missiles and missile-related technology. They also maintain a control list that outlines the set of missile-related technologies that should be subject to licensing requirements. The number of developers outside these established supplier states is increasing.

At least 11 of the non-parters have missile-related technology but do not adhere to the MTCR guidelines or have not adopted the MTCR annexe.

Israel, a non-parter, has 11-15 relevant NewSpace companies, while China has 76-100, the largest number of such companies. Many Chinese companies are small and micro launcher companies that benefit from technology transfers from state-owned or state-controlled entities and central and regional government funding.

In the News

SpaceX to Launch Nine Satellites for US Military Under $733M Contract

The US government has awarded SpaceX a $733.5 million contract to deploy nine satellites into low-Earth orbit. These missions, divided into seven launches for the Space Development Agency (SDA) and two for the National Reconnaissance Office, aim to bolster missile tracking and intelligence-gathering capabilities. The SDA plans for 30 total missions by 2029 to enhance US military communications and support national security. SpaceX’s reusable Falcon 9 rocket, chosen for these missions, facilitates rapid deployment and cost efficiency, aligning with the SDA’s push for frequent, medium-lift launches.
Read more at Defense Post.

ARX Robotics in Talks to Raise Series A as It Sets Out to Build Europe’s ‘Next Defence Prime’

German start-up ARX Robotics, which specialises in unmanned ground vehicles for military applications, is preparing to raise Series A funding. The company, aiming to become Europe’s next major defence contractor, has gained traction through its modular, AI-enabled robots currently deployed in Ukraine and European airports. Co-founder Marc Wietfeld highlighted ARX’s adaptability, noting the firm’s focus on rapid system upgrades to suit varied missions. ARX has also secured investment from the NATO Innovation Fund and intends to further expand in defence and civilian sectors across Europe.
Read more at Stifted.

US-China Tech War Seen Heating Up Regardless of Election Outcome

The US-China tech war is likely to escalate regardless of the U.S. election outcome, with both candidates promising tougher stances. If Trump wins, his administration is expected to broadly apply tariffs, while Harris’s approach may involve targeted restrictions on AI and chip technology. The US will likely continue curbing Chinese imports, AI chips, and critical technologies to limit China’s military capabilities. This ongoing tech conflict underscores the bipartisan commitment to countering China’s technological advancement in fields crucial to national security.
Read more at Reuters.

US to Give Ukraine Millions to Build More Long-Range Drones

The United States has pledged $800 million to Ukraine for the development of long-range drones as part of an effort to enhance Kyiv’s defensive capabilities. This funding shift supports Ukraine’s ability to manufacture its own weaponry, aiming to counter Russia’s military advances. Ukrainian officials highlighted the effectiveness of domestically produced drones, which have recently achieved significant strikes on Russian ammunition depots. The decision marks a pivot in US policy, focusing on empowering Ukraine to sustain long-term defence operations independently.
Read more at the New York Times.

Japan to Participate in AUKUS Defense Tech Tests: US Official

Japan is set to join defence technology tests within the AUKUS alliance in 2025, marking its shift from observer to active participant. This move aligns Japan with the U.S., U.K., and Australia’s collaborative efforts to advance autonomous military systems and maritime defence technology, showcasing its growing commitment to regional security. Japan’s inclusion reflects the increasing Indo-Pacific security concerns amid rising tensions with China.
Read more at Nikkei.

Japan’s Military Pivot is Firing Up NEC’s Defense Tech Business

Japan’s defence sector expansion has sparked significant growth for NEC Corp., with revenue in its aviation, space, and defence divisions projected to exceed ¥400 billion by 2026. NEC’s defence technology portfolio includes satellites, radar systems, and undersea cables, essential for national security. This growth is underpinned by Japan’s decision to increase military spending to ¥43 trillion by 2028, a shift driven by rising regional threats and a heightened focus on technological independence.
Read more at Bloomberg.

Future of the Military Drone Market: Key Technology, Strategic Growth, Opportunities & Challenges

The military drone market is poised for growth, expected to reach USD 18.2 billion by 2028 with a 7.0% CAGR. Emerging segments include combat drones, ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) drones, and logistics drones, with increased focus on swarming capabilities. Major players like Northrop Grumman and Raytheon are expanding their portfolios, while state policies in Ukraine and Spain are boosting local production, and fostering innovation in drone technology and deployment strategies.
Read more at Yahoo Finance.

Electronic Warfare and the Law of Armed Conflict

The Lieber Institute at West Point explores legal challenges of electronic warfare (EW) within the law of armed conflict, focusing on issues such as distinguishing civilian from military targets in the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS). EW encompasses jamming, spoofing, and directed-energy attacks, which complicate legal interpretations, especially when non-kinetic effects are intended. New technologies like high-energy lasers raise questions about what constitutes an “attack,” as defined by international law, emphasizing the need for clear legal standards to guide EW use in compliance with international humanitarian laws.
Read more at Lieber.